Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 4788 at 06:19 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–30%.

Safest bet that day AA 4788 BUF 06:19 → BOS 07:55 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest B6 516 BUF 21:43 → BOS 23:09 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4788 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BUF 06:19	BOS 07:55	4%	3%	0.7%	93%
AA 4666 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BUF 10:58	BOS 12:33	6%	3%	0.7%	94%
B6 716 JetBlue Flight history →	BUF 06:00	BOS 07:25	7%	3%	0.9%	82%
AA 4068 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	BUF 17:03	BOS 18:47	21%	8%	0.7%	67%
B6 916 JetBlue Flight history →	BUF 14:19	BOS 16:00	22%	9%	0.9%	65%
B6 516 JetBlue Flight history →	BUF 21:43	BOS 23:09	30%	12%	0.9%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON