Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 1204 at 06:01 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 17–28%.

Safest bet that day AA 1204 BUF 06:01 → CLT 08:01 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 1486 BUF 19:58 → CLT 21:57 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1204 American Flight history →	BUF 06:01	CLT 08:01	9%	4%	1.6%	93%
AA 1203 American Flight history →	BUF 11:31	CLT 13:28	17%	4%	0.9%	79%
AA 2442 American Flight history →	BUF 15:42	CLT 17:40	23%	6%	1.0%	79%
AA 1486 American Flight history →	BUF 19:58	CLT 21:57	28%	7%	0.9%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON