tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 11–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 1461 Southwest BUF 10:20 DEN 11:45 11% 2% 0.6% no record
UA 1727 United Flight history → BUF 09:00 DEN 10:35 12% 4% 0.6% 86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Denver on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 2 h behind Buffalo). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BUF 06:00 → ATL 08:10DL 2664 1h 45m Atlanta ATL 09:55 → DEN 11:05DL 995 7h 05m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → BUF 06:29 → DTW 07:42DL 2898 58m Detroit DTW 08:40 → DEN 09:47DL 1113 5h 18m 90% 80%
JetBlueDetails → BUF 06:00 → BOS 07:25B6 716 1h 53m Boston BOS 09:18 → DEN 11:39B6 393 7h 39m 97% 78%
AmericanDetails → BUF 06:01 → CLT 08:01AA 1204 1h 34m Charlotte CLT 09:35 → DEN 11:11AA 2859 7h 10m 95% 78%
AmericanDetails → BUF 06:32 → ORD 07:35AA 1195 2h 10m Chicago ORD 09:45 → DEN 11:23AA 2363 6h 51m 96% 72%
UnitedDetails → BUF 06:53 → ORD 07:48UA 543 3h 09m Chicago ORD 10:57 → DEN 12:31UA 2857 7h 38m 99% 72%
DeltaDetails → BUF 17:12 → ATL 19:23DL 2266 3h 36m Atlanta ATL 22:59 → DEN 00:23 +1DL 956 9h 11m 99% 70%
UnitedDetails → BUF 19:52 → IAD 21:15UA 4270 · flown by CommuteAir 1h 08m Dulles IAD 22:23 → DEN 00:30 +1UA 495 6h 38m 84% 68%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → BUF 19:58 → CLT 21:57AA 1486 51m Charlotte CLT 22:48 → DEN 00:17 +1AA 1659 6h 19m 61% 42%
UnitedDetails → BUF 18:04 → ORD 19:03UA 2747 1h 11m Chicago ORD 20:14 → DEN 21:59UA 329 5h 55m 60% 27%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON