tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Detroit, leaving 06:29, is the safest bet: 74% chance of reaching Dallas-Fort Worth on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 2% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 882 American Flight history → BUF 07:01 DFW 09:25 10% 5% 1.1% 87%
AA 1724 American Flight history → BUF 16:54 DFW 19:20 28% 9% 1.0% 60%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 1 h behind Buffalo). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BUF 06:00 → ATL 08:10DL 2664 1h 42m Atlanta ATL 09:52 → DFW 11:12DL 961 6h 12m 98% 85%
AmericanDetails → BUF 06:19 → BOS 07:55AA 4788 · flown by Republic 1h 06m Boston BOS 09:01 → DFW 12:19AA 479 7h 00m 96% 83%
DeltaDetails → BUF 06:05 → LGA 07:32DL 4670 · flown by Endeavor 1h 58m New York LGA 09:30 → DFW 12:09DL 856 7h 04m 95% 80%
AmericanDetails → BUF 06:01 → CLT 08:01AA 1204 1h 24m Charlotte CLT 09:25 → DFW 11:12AA 575 6h 11m 95% 76%
UnitedDetails → BUF 06:53 → ORD 07:48UA 543 2h 41m Chicago ORD 10:29 → DFW 13:12UA 441 7h 19m 97% 76%
AmericanDetails → BUF 10:58 → BOS 12:33AA 4666 · flown by Republic 2h 12m Boston BOS 14:45 → DFW 17:54AA 1442 7h 56m 100% 74%
DeltaDetails → BUF 06:29 → DTW 07:42DL 2898 53m Detroit DTW 08:35 → DFW 10:24DL 2746 4h 55m 86% 74%
DeltaDetails → BUF 10:20 → LGA 11:44DL 5376 · flown by Endeavor 3h 16m New York LGA 15:00 → DFW 18:01DL 846 8h 41m 98% 74%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → BUF 19:58 → CLT 21:57AA 1486 50m Charlotte CLT 22:47 → DFW 00:30 +1AA 1256 5h 32m 60% 40%
AmericanDetails → BUF 15:42 → CLT 17:40AA 2442 46m Charlotte CLT 18:26 → DFW 20:11AA 2815 5h 29m 61% 36%
UnitedDetails → BUF 18:04 → ORD 19:03UA 2747 47m Chicago ORD 19:50 → DFW 22:36UA 1673 5h 32m 2% 1%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON