Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 11–21% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 2898 BUF 06:29 → DTW 07:42 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest OO 3870 BUF 15:51 → DTW 17:08 · 21% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2898 Delta Flight history →	BUF 06:29	DTW 07:42	11%	3%	0.8%	90%
OO 3863 SkyWest	BUF 09:12	DTW 10:30	14%	5%	0.7%	no record
OO 3861 SkyWest	BUF 12:00	DTW 13:17	19%	6%	0.7%	no record
9E 5397 Endeavor	BUF 19:44	DTW 21:00	19%	5%	1.4%	no record
OO 3870 SkyWest	BUF 15:51	DTW 17:08	21%	7%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON