tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, B6 865 at 06:51, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
B6 865 JetBlue Flight history → BUF 06:51 FLL 10:06 15% 3% 1.2% 79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Lauderdale on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BUF 06:00 → ATL 08:10DL 2664 3h 15m Atlanta ATL 11:25 → FLL 13:20DL 2063 7h 20m 99% 78%
DeltaDetails → BUF 06:05 → LGA 07:32DL 4670 · flown by Endeavor 3h 23m New York LGA 10:55 → FLL 13:54DL 1181 7h 49m 99% 76%
AmericanDetails → BUF 06:01 → CLT 08:01AA 1204 2h 58m Charlotte CLT 10:59 → FLL 13:01AA 2585 7h 00m 97% 74%
DeltaDetails → BUF 07:00 → JFK 08:30DL 5284 · flown by Endeavor 2h 44m New York JFK 11:14 → FLL 14:24DL 305 7h 24m 97% 74%
UnitedDetails → BUF 06:53 → ORD 07:48UA 543 3h 11m Chicago ORD 10:59 → FLL 15:13UA 279 8h 20m 99% 70%
DeltaDetails → BUF 17:12 → ATL 19:23DL 2266 3h 22m Atlanta ATL 22:45 → FLL 00:39 +1DL 1229 7h 27m 98% 68%
DeltaDetails → BUF 12:16 → ATL 14:22DL 1384 2h 17m Atlanta ATL 16:39 → FLL 18:40DL 1295 6h 24m 98% 67%
AmericanDetails → BUF 11:00 → LGA 12:39AA 4363 · flown by Republic 3h 34m New York LGA 16:13 → FLL 19:29AA 2836 8h 29m 98% 66%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON