tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 4270 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record BUF 19:52 IAD 21:15 18% 9% 3.9% 82%
UA 4291 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record BUF 15:00 IAD 16:23 21% 10% 2.9% 79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BUF 06:00 → ATL 08:10DL 2664 1h 44m Atlanta ATL 09:54 → IAD 11:41DL 1444 5h 41m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → BUF 06:29 → DTW 07:42DL 2898 1h 08m Detroit DTW 08:50 → IAD 10:23DL 2884 3h 54m 94% 85%
UnitedDetails → BUF 06:53 → ORD 07:48UA 543 3h 03m Chicago ORD 10:51 → IAD 13:45UA 1486 6h 52m 99% 80%
AmericanDetails → BUF 11:31 → CLT 13:28AA 1203 3h 20m Charlotte CLT 16:48 → IAD 18:28AA 5447 · flown by PSA 6h 57m 97% 75%
DeltaDetails → BUF 17:12 → ATL 19:23DL 2266 3h 30m Atlanta ATL 22:53 → IAD 00:41 +1DL 2549 7h 29m 99% 74%
DeltaDetails → BUF 12:16 → ATL 14:22DL 1384 2h 17m Atlanta ATL 16:39 → IAD 18:31DL 2902 6h 15m 98% 74%
AmericanDetails → BUF 15:42 → CLT 17:40AA 2442 1h 55m Charlotte CLT 19:35 → IAD 21:02AA 1954 5h 20m 93% 65%
UnitedDetails → BUF 13:54 → ORD 14:55UA 4381 · flown by GoJet 3h 14m Chicago ORD 18:09 → IAD 21:18UA 2202 7h 24m 93% 47%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → BUF 18:04 → ORD 19:03UA 2747 1h 08m Chicago ORD 20:11 → IAD 23:09UA 304 5h 05m 57% 31%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON