tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: American via Boston, leaving 06:19, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching Los Angeles on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 58% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 3 h behind Buffalo). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → BUF 06:19 → BOS 07:55AA 4788 · flown by Republic 2h 32m Boston BOS 10:27 → LAX 13:43AA 2141 10h 24m 99% 81%
JetBlueDetails → BUF 06:00 → BOS 07:25B6 716 3h 35m Boston BOS 11:00 → LAX 14:09B6 1487 11h 09m 99% 80%
DeltaDetails → BUF 06:00 → ATL 08:10DL 2664 2h 15m Atlanta ATL 10:25 → LAX 11:55DL 501 8h 55m 99% 79%
JetBlueDetails → BUF 06:40 → JFK 08:05B6 2001 1h 32m New York JFK 09:37 → LAX 12:40B6 223 9h 00m 96% 78%
DeltaDetails → BUF 07:00 → JFK 08:30DL 5284 · flown by Endeavor 2h 35m New York JFK 11:05 → LAX 13:49DL 1905 9h 49m 97% 76%
AmericanDetails → BUF 06:01 → CLT 08:01AA 1204 56m Charlotte CLT 08:57 → LAX 10:56AA 1995 7h 55m 90% 74%
DeltaDetails → BUF 06:29 → DTW 07:42DL 2898 53m Detroit DTW 08:35 → LAX 10:20DL 523 6h 51m 86% 73%
AmericanDetails → BUF 07:01 → DFW 09:25AA 882 1h 33m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:58 → LAX 12:18AA 3181 8h 17m 97% 73%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → BUF 13:54 → ORD 14:55UA 4381 · flown by GoJet 52m Chicago ORD 15:47 → LAX 18:20UA 576 7h 26m 64% 35%
JetBlueDetails → BUF 19:21 → JFK 20:50B6 201 50m New York JFK 21:40 → LAX 00:51 +1B6 923 8h 30m 58% 35%
UnitedDetails → BUF 18:04 → ORD 19:03UA 2747 1h 15m Chicago ORD 20:18 → LAX 22:55UA 2499 7h 51m 63% 27%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON