Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: YX 5820 at 05:56 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–32%.

Safest bet that day YX 5820 BUF 05:56 → LGA 07:35 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 860 BUF 18:04 → LGA 19:32 · 32% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 5820 Republic	BUF 05:56	LGA 07:35	4%	3%	1.1%	no record
YX 5818 Republic	BUF 10:00	LGA 11:39	10%	4%	1.3%	no record
AA 4363 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BUF 11:00	LGA 12:39	10%	4%	1.8%	89%
DL 5362 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	BUF 14:02	LGA 15:30	18%	7%	1.9%	70%
DL 5792 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BUF 18:24	LGA 20:03	22%	7%	1.8%	86%
AA 860 American	BUF 18:04	LGA 19:32	32%	10%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON