Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 834 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–32%.

Safest bet that day WN 834 BUF 05:00 → MCO 07:46 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 1691 BUF 12:43 → MCO 15:39 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 834 Southwest	BUF 05:00	MCO 07:46	4%	1%	0.7%	no record
B6 85 JetBlue Flight history →	BUF 08:42	MCO 11:22	14%	5%	1.1%	85%
WN 1450 Southwest	BUF 20:55	MCO 23:38	24%	8%	0.7%	no record
WN 1648 Southwest	BUF 12:20	MCO 15:03	27%	6%	1.4%	no record
F9 1691 Frontier Flight history →	BUF 12:43	MCO 15:39	32%	13%	1.9%	79%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON