tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, DL 1749 at 19:23, with a 18% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 1749 Delta BUF 19:23 MSP 20:44 18% 7% 0.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h behind Buffalo). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BUF 06:29 → DTW 07:42DL 2898 1h 18m Detroit DTW 09:00 → MSP 09:54DL 2258 4h 25m 95% 86%
DeltaDetails → BUF 06:00 → ATL 08:10DL 2664 1h 45m Atlanta ATL 09:55 → MSP 11:30DL 2090 6h 30m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → BUF 06:05 → LGA 07:32DL 4670 · flown by Endeavor 3h 38m New York LGA 11:10 → MSP 13:10DL 2409 8h 05m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → BUF 07:00 → JFK 08:30DL 5284 · flown by Endeavor 3h 05m New York JFK 11:35 → MSP 13:50DL 2414 7h 50m 98% 80%
AmericanDetails → BUF 06:01 → CLT 08:01AA 1204 3h 16m Charlotte CLT 11:17 → MSP 12:59AA 1671 7h 58m 97% 78%
DeltaDetails → BUF 17:12 → ATL 19:23DL 2266 3h 37m Atlanta ATL 23:00 → MSP 00:39 +1DL 1310 8h 27m 99% 76%
UnitedDetails → BUF 09:00 → DEN 10:35UA 1727 3h 07m Denver DEN 13:42 → MSP 16:46UA 732 8h 46m 98% 75%
DeltaDetails → BUF 10:20 → LGA 11:44DL 5376 · flown by Endeavor 3h 11m New York LGA 14:55 → MSP 17:06DL 2349 7h 46m 98% 75%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → BUF 10:44 → PHL 12:10AA 5925 · flown by Piedmont 49m Philadelphia PHL 12:59 → MSP 14:57AA 3294 5h 13m 72% 61%
DeltaDetails → BUF 15:50 → JFK 17:31DL 5296 · flown by Endeavor 49m New York JFK 18:20 → MSP 21:00DL 4933 · flown by Endeavor 6h 10m 75% 42%
UnitedDetails → BUF 18:04 → ORD 19:03UA 2747 54m Chicago ORD 19:57 → MSP 21:41UA 2005 4h 37m 25% 12%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON