Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 1195 at 06:32 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 54–56%.

Safest bet that day AA 1195 BUF 06:32 → ORD 07:35 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AA 856 BUF 18:56 → ORD 19:54 · 56% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 1195 American Flight history →	BUF 06:32	ORD 07:35	12%	6%	1.1%	88%
UA 543 United Flight history →	BUF 06:53	ORD 07:48	13%	5%	0.9%	85%
YX 4751 Republic	BUF 12:05	ORD 13:07	20%	5%	1.4%	no record
UA 1651 United	BUF 10:43	ORD 11:38	20%	8%	0.9%	no record
UA 2747 United Flight history →	BUF 18:04	ORD 19:03	54%	22%	1.5%	63%worse than usual
AA 856 American	BUF 18:56	ORD 19:54	56%	25%	2.8%	no record
UA 4381 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	BUF 13:54	ORD 14:55	27%	16%	2.7%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON