Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 5925 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	BUF 10:44	PHL 12:10	18%	7%	0.5%	82%
AA 6041 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	BUF 14:44	PHL 16:14	28%	23%	4.2%	72%
AA 6114 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	BUF 19:40	PHL 21:10	29%	10%	12.7%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON