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Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching San Juan on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Juan on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BUF 06:00 → ATL 08:10DL 2664 1h 35m Atlanta ATL 09:45 → SJU 13:32DL 1882 7h 32m 98% 80%
UnitedDetails → BUF 06:53 → ORD 07:48UA 543 1h 01m Chicago ORD 08:49 → SJU 14:44UA 1996 7h 51m 87% 71%
AmericanDetails → BUF 06:01 → CLT 08:01AA 1204 3h 02m Charlotte CLT 11:03 → SJU 14:50AA 783 8h 49m 97% 69%
JetBlueDetails → BUF 06:40 → JFK 08:05B6 2001 1h 55m New York JFK 10:00 → SJU 14:14B6 503 7h 34m 97% 66%
JetBlueDetails → BUF 08:42 → MCO 11:22B6 85 1h 11m Orlando MCO 12:33 → SJU 15:39B6 1133 6h 57m 91% 65%
DeltaDetails → BUF 15:50 → JFK 17:31DL 5296 · flown by Endeavor 1h 58m New York JFK 19:29 → SJU 23:53DL 1859 8h 03m 94% 63%
JetBlueDetails → BUF 06:51 → FLL 10:06B6 865 1h 59m Fort Lauderdale FLL 12:05 → SJU 14:42B6 1453 7h 51m 97% 58%
JetBlueDetails → BUF 12:11 → JFK 13:43B6 1901 3h 47m New York JFK 17:30 → SJU 21:40B6 803 9h 29m 97% 57%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON