tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: WN 3764 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 22%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 3764 Southwest BUF 06:05 TPA 09:03 5% 1% 0.9% no record
WN 1577 Southwest BUF 17:15 TPA 20:14 22% 6% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tampa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BUF 06:00 → ATL 08:10DL 2664 1h 50m Atlanta ATL 10:00 → TPA 11:29DL 1587 5h 29m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → BUF 06:29 → DTW 07:42DL 2898 2h 33m Detroit DTW 10:15 → TPA 12:50DL 2587 6h 21m 98% 82%
JetBlueDetails → BUF 06:00 → BOS 07:25B6 716 3h 38m Boston BOS 11:03 → TPA 14:36B6 791 8h 36m 100% 78%
DeltaDetails → BUF 06:05 → LGA 07:32DL 4670 · flown by Endeavor 3h 08m New York LGA 10:40 → TPA 13:28DL 2195 7h 23m 99% 77%
AmericanDetails → BUF 06:01 → CLT 08:01AA 1204 1h 21m Charlotte CLT 09:22 → TPA 11:16AA 2710 5h 15m 95% 77%
UnitedDetails → BUF 06:53 → ORD 07:48UA 543 3h 31m Chicago ORD 11:19 → TPA 15:12UA 1834 8h 19m 99% 77%
DeltaDetails → BUF 10:00 → JFK 11:24DL 5426 · flown by Endeavor 3h 06m New York JFK 14:30 → TPA 17:39DL 2093 7h 39m 98% 75%
DeltaDetails → BUF 17:12 → ATL 19:23DL 2266 3h 36m Atlanta ATL 22:59 → TPA 00:29 +1DL 1560 7h 17m 99% 75%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → BUF 19:58 → CLT 21:57AA 1486 49m Charlotte CLT 22:46 → TPA 00:41 +1AA 1773 4h 43m 58% 39%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON