tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 73% chance of reaching Atlanta on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 72% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Atlanta on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Atlanta is 3 h ahead of Burbank). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BUR 07:00 → SLC 10:01DL 2582 3h 34m Salt Lake City SLC 13:35 → ATL 19:22DL 906 9h 22m 98% 73%
DeltaDetails → BUR 16:54 → SLC 19:50DL 3693 · flown by SkyWest 3h 45m Salt Lake City SLC 23:35 → ATL 05:14 +1DL 912 9h 20m 98% 71%
UnitedDetails → BUR 07:02 → SFO 08:30UA 488 2h 19m San Francisco SFO 10:49 → ATL 18:40UA 702 8h 38m 96% 69%
AlaskaDetails → BUR 10:55 → SEA 13:29AS 1388 2h 39m Seattle SEA 16:08 → ATL 23:55AS 217 10h 00m 93% 66%
DeltaDetails → BUR 12:35 → SLC 15:33DL 3933 · flown by SkyWest 2h 22m Salt Lake City SLC 17:55 → ATL 23:58DL 905 8h 23m 98% 64%
AmericanDetails → BUR 07:01 → DFW 12:19AA 2599 1h 14m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:33 → ATL 16:53AA 2398 6h 52m 91% 63%
AmericanDetails → BUR 12:22 → DFW 17:34AA 1208 3h 36m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:10 → ATL 00:19 +1AA 2749 8h 57m 96% 51%
UnitedDetails → BUR 12:48 → DEN 16:16UA 2187 1h 52m Denver DEN 18:08 → ATL 23:14UA 248 7h 26m 85% 50%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → BUR 18:42 → SFO 20:10UA 1508 1h 32m San Francisco SFO 21:42 → ATL 05:37 +1UA 233 7h 55m 72% 54%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON