tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 3698 at 18:30, with a 31% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 3698 Southwest BUR 18:30 AUS 23:36 31% 14% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Austin is 2 h ahead of Burbank). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → BUR 13:45 → SFO 15:13UA 1453 3h 23m San Francisco SFO 18:36 → AUS 00:16 +1UA 2332 8h 31m 97% 76%
AlaskaDetails → BUR 07:09 → PDX 09:27AS 562 1h 03m Portland PDX 10:30 → AUS 16:38AS 540 7h 29m 93% 74%
DeltaDetails → BUR 07:00 → SLC 10:01DL 2582 3h 18m Salt Lake City SLC 13:19 → AUS 17:07DL 2689 8h 07m 98% 70%
UnitedDetails → BUR 07:02 → SFO 08:30UA 488 2h 30m San Francisco SFO 11:00 → AUS 16:36UA 2432 7h 34m 97% 69%
AlaskaDetails → BUR 07:18 → SEA 09:37AS 491 2h 08m Seattle SEA 11:45 → AUS 17:43AS 502 8h 25m 97% 63%
DeltaDetails → BUR 12:35 → SLC 15:33DL 3933 · flown by SkyWest 2h 12m Salt Lake City SLC 17:45 → AUS 21:30DL 2728 6h 55m 97% 61%
AmericanDetails → BUR 07:01 → DFW 12:19AA 2599 1h 11m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:30 → AUS 14:42AA 1073 5h 41m 89% 58%
UnitedDetails → BUR 12:48 → DEN 16:16UA 2187 2h 23m Denver DEN 18:39 → AUS 21:57UA 1942 7h 09m 89% 54%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → BUR 13:45 → SFO 15:13UA 1453 1h 19m San Francisco SFO 16:32 → AUS 22:16UA 2150 6h 31m 71% 51%
UnitedDetails → BUR 10:53 → SFO 12:21UA 2386 59m San Francisco SFO 13:20 → AUS 19:05UA 1116 6h 12m 65% 46%
AmericanDetails → BUR 12:22 → DFW 17:34AA 1208 1h 30m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:04 → AUS 20:13AA 576 5h 51m 74% 36%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON