tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 2243 at 11:30, with a 22% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 2243 Southwest BUR 11:30 BNA 17:34 22% 6% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 2 h ahead of Burbank). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BUR 07:00 → SLC 10:01DL 2582 3h 44m Salt Lake City SLC 13:45 → BNA 18:13DL 2205 9h 13m 98% 74%
AlaskaDetails → BUR 07:09 → PDX 09:27AS 562 1h 03m Portland PDX 10:30 → BNA 17:00AS 1376 7h 51m 93% 73%
UnitedDetails → BUR 07:02 → SFO 08:30UA 488 3h 13m San Francisco SFO 11:43 → BNA 18:16UA 499 9h 14m 99% 72%
UnitedDetails → BUR 10:53 → SFO 12:21UA 2386 2h 15m San Francisco SFO 14:36 → BNA 21:14UA 433 8h 21m 95% 66%
DeltaDetails → BUR 12:35 → SLC 15:33DL 3933 · flown by SkyWest 3h 12m Salt Lake City SLC 18:45 → BNA 23:05DL 2317 8h 30m 98% 63%
AmericanDetails → BUR 07:01 → DFW 12:19AA 2599 1h 56m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:15 → BNA 16:21AA 1181 7h 20m 96% 60%
AmericanDetails → BUR 12:22 → DFW 17:34AA 1208 2h 41m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:15 → BNA 22:10AA 1500 7h 48m 93% 51%
UnitedDetails → BUR 12:48 → DEN 16:16UA 2187 1h 14m Denver DEN 17:30 → BNA 21:13UA 1300 6h 25m 76% 44%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON