Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 4595 at 07:45 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–43%.

Safest bet that day WN 4595 BUR 07:45 → DEN 11:05 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2686 BUR 14:45 → DEN 18:04 · 43% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4595 Southwest	BUR 07:45	DEN 11:05	7%	2%	0.7%	no record
UA 1899 United	BUR 09:04	DEN 12:46	12%	7%	0.6%	no record
WN 4986 Southwest	BUR 21:13	DEN 00:31	26%	9%	0.7%	no record
WN 1813 Southwest	BUR 11:55	DEN 15:14	27%	7%	0.7%	no record
UA 2187 United Flight history →	BUR 12:48	DEN 16:16	33%	17%	0.7%	80%worse than usual
WN 2686 Southwest	BUR 14:45	DEN 18:04	43%	16%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON