tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, AS 3259 at 12:02, with a 21% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 3259 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history → BUR 12:02 EUG 14:15 21% 6% 0.8% 87%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Eugene on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AlaskaDetails → BUR 16:54 → SEA 19:28AS 537 3h 21m Seattle SEA 22:49 → EUG 23:59AS 2047 · flown by Horizon 7h 05m 96% 84%
AlaskaDetails → BUR 18:10 → PDX 20:25AS 649 1h 15m Portland PDX 21:40 → EUG 22:28AS 2088 · flown by Horizon 4h 18m 81% 64%
AlaskaDetails → BUR 10:55 → SEA 13:29AS 1388 2h 21m Seattle SEA 15:50 → EUG 17:00AS 2338 · flown by Horizon 6h 05m 93% 62%
UnitedDetails → BUR 12:48 → DEN 16:16UA 2187 3h 19m Denver DEN 19:35 → EUG 21:21UA 1303 8h 33m 95% 58%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → BUR 18:10 → PDX 20:25AS 649 1h 05m Portland PDX 21:30 → EUG 22:30AS 3043 · flown by SkyWest 4h 20m 73% 63%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON