tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Wed 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: United via SFO, leaving 13:45, is the safest bet: 76% chance of reaching Honolulu on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 67% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Honolulu on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Honolulu is 3 h behind Burbank). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → BUR 13:45 → SFO 15:13UA 1453 3h 47m San Francisco SFO 19:00 → HNL 21:43UA 638 10h 58m 98% 76%
DeltaDetails → BUR 07:00 → SLC 10:01DL 2582 1h 44m Salt Lake City SLC 11:45 → HNL 14:19DL 316 10h 19m 96% 75%
UnitedDetails → BUR 07:02 → SFO 08:30UA 488 2h 15m San Francisco SFO 10:45 → HNL 13:20UA 2380 9h 18m 96% 73%
AlaskaDetails → BUR 07:09 → PDX 09:27AS 562 1h 03m Portland PDX 10:30 → HNL 13:28AS 813 9h 19m 93% 64%
UnitedDetails → BUR 10:53 → SFO 12:21UA 2386 1h 34m San Francisco SFO 13:55 → HNL 16:18UA 300 8h 25m 81% 61%
AlaskaDetails → BUR 07:00 → SEA 09:34AS 491 2h 37m Seattle SEA 12:11 → HNL 15:22AS 899 11h 22m 97% 58%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → BUR 07:02 → SFO 08:30UA 488 50m San Francisco SFO 09:20 → HNL 11:43UA 1175 7h 41m 67% 57%
AlaskaDetails → BUR 16:53 → SEA 19:26AS 537 1h 24m Seattle SEA 20:50 → HNL 23:49AS 268 9h 56m 72% 41%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON