tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: United via SFO, leaving 18:42, is the safest bet: 76% chance of reaching Dulles on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 72% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dulles is 3 h ahead of Burbank). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → BUR 18:42 → SFO 20:10UA 1508 3h 10m San Francisco SFO 23:20 → IAD 07:48 +1UA 2111 10h 06m 96% 76%
UnitedDetails → BUR 07:02 → SFO 08:30UA 488 2h 20m San Francisco SFO 10:50 → IAD 19:11UA 336 9h 09m 96% 73%
AlaskaDetails → BUR 16:54 → SEA 19:28AS 537 3h 15m Seattle SEA 22:43 → IAD 06:39 +1AS 367 10h 45m 92% 70%
AlaskaDetails → BUR 10:55 → SEA 13:29AS 1388 2h 27m Seattle SEA 15:56 → IAD 23:42AS 366 9h 47m 93% 68%
UnitedDetails → BUR 10:53 → SFO 12:21UA 2386 2h 18m San Francisco SFO 14:39 → IAD 22:31UA 1791 8h 38m 95% 68%
DeltaDetails → BUR 12:35 → SLC 15:33DL 3933 · flown by SkyWest 1h 57m Salt Lake City SLC 17:30 → IAD 23:29DL 847 7h 54m 96% 67%
AmericanDetails → BUR 07:01 → DFW 12:19AA 2599 2h 32m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:51 → IAD 19:02AA 1863 9h 01m 97% 61%
AmericanDetails → BUR 12:22 → DFW 17:34AA 1208 3h 19m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:53 → IAD 00:49 +1AA 2254 9h 27m 96% 55%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → BUR 18:42 → SFO 20:10UA 1508 1h 32m San Francisco SFO 21:42 → IAD 06:03 +1UA 705 8h 21m 72% 58%
UnitedDetails → BUR 20:22 → SFO 21:50UA 2854 1h 30m San Francisco SFO 23:20 → IAD 07:48 +1UA 2111 8h 26m 73% 58%
UnitedDetails → BUR 13:45 → SFO 15:13UA 1453 1h 21m San Francisco SFO 16:34 → IAD 00:55 +1UA 1453 8h 10m 72% 55%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON