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Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: United via SFO, leaving 18:42, is the safest bet: 77% chance of reaching Indianapolis on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Indianapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Indianapolis is 3 h ahead of Burbank). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → BUR 18:42 → SFO 20:10UA 1508 3h 25m San Francisco SFO 23:35 → IND 07:11 +1UA 1726 9h 29m 97% 77%
DeltaDetails → BUR 12:35 → SLC 15:33DL 3933 · flown by SkyWest 2h 17m Salt Lake City SLC 17:50 → IND 22:59DL 2228 7h 24m 97% 67%
AlaskaDetails → BUR 16:54 → SEA 19:28AS 537 3h 11m Seattle SEA 22:39 → IND 05:44 +1AS 624 9h 50m 91% 66%
AmericanDetails → BUR 07:01 → DFW 12:19AA 2599 1h 19m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:38 → IND 16:48AA 1450 6h 47m 92% 59%
UnitedDetails → BUR 07:02 → SFO 08:30UA 488 1h 31m San Francisco SFO 10:01 → IND 17:11UA 2274 7h 09m 89% 59%
AmericanDetails → BUR 12:22 → DFW 17:34AA 1208 3h 10m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:44 → IND 23:58AA 766 8h 36m 96% 50%
UnitedDetails → BUR 12:48 → DEN 16:16UA 2187 1h 33m Denver DEN 17:49 → IND 22:27UA 8205 6h 39m 83% 47%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON