Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 12:35, is the safest bet: 63% chance of reaching New York on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 54% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


B6 359 JetBlue Flight history →	BUR 21:25	JFK 05:59	37%	12%	2.3%	72%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 3 h ahead of Burbank). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	BUR 07:09 → PDX 09:27AS 562	1h 20m Portland	PDX 10:47 → JFK 19:23AS 18	9h 14m	98%	73%
Alaska Details →	BUR 16:54 → SEA 19:28AS 537	3h 47m Seattle	SEA 23:15 → JFK 07:38 +1AS 22	11h 44m	98%	71%
Delta Details →	BUR 12:35 → SLC 15:33DL 3933 · flown by SkyWest	1h 37m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:10 → JFK 23:47DL 697	8h 12m	94%	63%
American Details →	BUR 07:01 → DFW 12:19AA 2599	3h 54m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 16:13 → JFK 21:00AA 578	10h 59m	98%	58%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	BUR 18:10 → PDX 20:25AS 649	1h 03m Portland	PDX 21:28 → JFK 05:28 +1AS 336	8h 18m	72%	56%
American Details →	BUR 12:22 → DFW 17:34AA 1208	57m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:31 → JFK 23:05AA 1248	7h 43m	54%	29%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON