Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 579 at 07:10 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 47–50%.

Safest bet that day WN 579 BUR 07:10 → LAS 08:24 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 875 BUR 18:55 → LAS 20:08 · 50% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 579 Southwest	BUR 07:10	LAS 08:24	6%	1%	1.3%	no record
WN 2474 Southwest	BUR 08:20	LAS 09:33	10%	2%	1.3%	no record
WN 2309 Southwest	BUR 09:15	LAS 10:28	11%	2%	1.3%	no record
WN 3706 Southwest	BUR 10:15	LAS 11:28	17%	4%	1.2%	no record
WN 867 Southwest	BUR 11:20	LAS 12:33	22%	5%	1.3%	no record
WN 2333 Southwest	BUR 12:30	LAS 13:43	38%	7%	1.2%	no record
WN 3678 Southwest	BUR 15:00	LAS 16:13	42%	13%	1.3%	no record
WN 869 Southwest	BUR 14:09	LAS 15:22	45%	13%	1.3%	no record
WN 4587 Southwest	BUR 13:20	LAS 14:33	45%	12%	1.2%	no record
WN 874 Southwest	BUR 16:05	LAS 17:18	47%	16%	1.3%	no record
F9 4108 Frontier Flight history →	BUR 13:10	LAS 14:28	48%	14%	2.2%	80%worse than usual
WN 873 Southwest	BUR 17:55	LAS 19:08	49%	19%	1.2%	no record
WN 875 Southwest	BUR 18:55	LAS 20:08	50%	20%	1.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON