Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: American via DFW, leaving 07:01, is the safest bet: 59% chance of reaching New York on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 72% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 3 h ahead of Burbank). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	BUR 07:01 → DFW 12:19AA 2599	1h 47m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:06 → LGA 18:47AA 1806	8h 46m	96%	59%
United Details →	BUR 12:48 → DEN 16:16UA 2187	1h 19m Denver	DEN 17:35 → LGA 23:30UA 2033	7h 42m	78%	47%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	BUR 12:22 → DFW 17:34AA 1208	1h 27m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 19:01 → LGA 23:31AA 1375	8h 09m	72%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON