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Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 16:54, is the safest bet: 70% chance of reaching Orlando on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 52% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Orlando is 3 h ahead of Burbank). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BUR 16:54 → SLC 19:50DL 3693 · flown by SkyWest 3h 46m Salt Lake City SLC 23:36 → MCO 06:00 +1DL 2069 10h 06m 98% 70%
DeltaDetails → BUR 07:00 → SLC 10:01DL 2582 1h 22m Salt Lake City SLC 11:23 → MCO 18:01DL 2024 8h 01m 95% 67%
AlaskaDetails → BUR 10:55 → SEA 13:29AS 1388 1h 59m Seattle SEA 15:28 → MCO 23:55AS 420 10h 00m 91% 66%
AlaskaDetails → BUR 16:54 → SEA 19:28AS 537 2h 01m Seattle SEA 21:29 → MCO 05:52 +1AS 390 9h 58m 82% 61%
DeltaDetails → BUR 12:35 → SLC 15:33DL 3933 · flown by SkyWest 1h 52m Salt Lake City SLC 17:25 → MCO 23:55DL 2056 8h 20m 95% 60%
AmericanDetails → BUR 07:01 → DFW 12:19AA 2599 1h 26m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:45 → MCO 17:35AA 1692 7h 34m 93% 53%
UnitedDetails → BUR 12:48 → DEN 16:16UA 2187 1h 36m Denver DEN 17:52 → MCO 23:41UA 259 7h 53m 84% 50%
AmericanDetails → BUR 12:22 → DFW 17:34AA 1208 3h 01m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:35 → MCO 00:21 +1AA 1336 8h 59m 96% 48%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → BUR 12:22 → DFW 17:34AA 1208 56m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:30 → MCO 22:17AA 2186 6h 55m 52% 26%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON