Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 1123 at 07:20 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–31%.

Safest bet that day WN 1123 BUR 07:20 → OAK 08:44 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1129 BUR 18:00 → OAK 19:24 · 31% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1123 Southwest	BUR 07:20	OAK 08:44	4%	1%	1.4%	no record
WN 1031 Southwest	BUR 09:49	OAK 11:13	8%	2%	1.3%	no record
WN 883 Southwest	BUR 10:49	OAK 12:13	10%	3%	1.2%	no record
WN 925 Southwest	BUR 13:45	OAK 15:09	23%	5%	1.2%	no record
WN 1371 Southwest	BUR 15:25	OAK 16:49	25%	6%	1.2%	no record
WN 889 Southwest	BUR 19:25	OAK 20:49	27%	8%	1.1%	no record
WN 1145 Southwest	BUR 20:52	OAK 22:16	30%	9%	1.3%	no record
WN 1129 Southwest	BUR 18:00	OAK 19:24	31%	8%	1.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON