Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AS 562 at 07:09 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–30%.

Safest bet that day AS 562 BUR 07:09 → PDX 09:27 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest AS 649 BUR 18:10 → PDX 20:25 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 562 Alaska Flight history →	BUR 07:09	PDX 09:27	10%	2%	1.1%	96%
AS 1322 Alaska	BUR 10:27	PDX 12:48	14%	3%	1.1%	no record
AS 293 Alaska	BUR 14:12	PDX 16:31	23%	3%	1.1%	no record
AS 649 Alaska Flight history →	BUR 18:10	PDX 20:25	30%	5%	1.1%	86%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON