Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 286 at 07:34 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–36%.

Safest bet that day WN 286 BUR 07:34 → PHX 09:14 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 900 BUR 20:11 → PHX 21:50 · 36% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 286 Southwest	BUR 07:34	PHX 09:14	8%	2%	1.2%	no record
WN 210 Southwest	BUR 10:31	PHX 12:11	16%	4%	1.0%	no record
MQ 4220 Envoy	BUR 09:55	PHX 11:35	19%	4%	1.1%	no record
WN 3385 Southwest	BUR 12:51	PHX 14:31	25%	7%	1.0%	no record
WN 2894 Southwest	BUR 14:01	PHX 15:41	26%	7%	1.0%	no record
OO 6185 SkyWest	BUR 18:51	PHX 20:44	30%	13%	1.2%	no record
WN 581 Southwest	BUR 16:26	PHX 18:06	31%	9%	1.1%	no record
OO 6246 SkyWest	BUR 16:52	PHX 18:40	32%	11%	1.1%	no record
WN 901 Southwest	BUR 20:45	PHX 22:25	34%	12%	1.4%	no record
WN 900 Southwest	BUR 20:11	PHX 21:50	36%	12%	1.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON