Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, AS 3224 at 08:20, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 3224 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BUR 08:20	RDM 10:46	9%	3%	0.7%	87%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Redmond on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BUR 16:54 → SLC 19:50DL 3693 · flown by SkyWest	3h 17m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:07 → RDM 23:58DL 3756 · flown by SkyWest	7h 04m	98%	85%
Alaska Details →	BUR 16:54 → SEA 19:28AS 537	3h 25m Seattle	SEA 22:53 → RDM 23:59AS 2094 · flown by Horizon	7h 05m	96%	81%
Alaska Details →	BUR 18:10 → PDX 20:25AS 649	1h 30m Portland	PDX 21:55 → RDM 22:45AS 2057 · flown by Horizon	4h 35m	85%	75%
Alaska Details →	BUR 10:55 → SEA 13:29AS 1388	2h 50m Seattle	SEA 16:19 → RDM 17:32AS 3435 · flown by SkyWest	6h 37m	93%	68%
United Details →	BUR 07:02 → SFO 08:30UA 488	1h 58m San Francisco	SFO 10:28 → RDM 12:12UA 2153	5h 10m	93%	68%
Alaska Details →	BUR 07:18 → SEA 09:37AS 491	1h 50m Seattle	SEA 11:27 → RDM 12:34AS 275	5h 16m	93%	63%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	BUR 13:45 → SFO 15:13UA 1453	1h 12m San Francisco	SFO 16:25 → RDM 18:03UA 2418	4h 18m	67%	46%
United Details →	BUR 18:42 → SFO 20:10UA 1508	1h 08m San Francisco	SFO 21:18 → RDM 22:59UA 1809	4h 17m	62%	42%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON