tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: WN 1266 at 09:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 28%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 1266 Southwest BUR 09:00 RNO 10:28 8% 2% 0.7% no record
WN 3707 Southwest BUR 20:50 RNO 22:17 28% 11% 0.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Reno on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BUR 07:00 → SLC 10:01DL 2582 1h 39m Salt Lake City SLC 11:40 → RNO 12:09DL 1595 5h 09m 96% 79%
DeltaDetails → BUR 16:54 → SLC 19:50DL 3693 · flown by SkyWest 3h 30m Salt Lake City SLC 23:20 → RNO 23:47DL 1607 6h 53m 98% 76%
UnitedDetails → BUR 13:45 → SFO 15:13UA 1453 3h 40m San Francisco SFO 18:53 → RNO 20:09UA 581 6h 24m 98% 70%
AlaskaDetails → BUR 07:18 → SEA 09:37AS 491 2h 08m Seattle SEA 11:45 → RNO 13:31AS 601 6h 13m 97% 63%
UnitedDetails → BUR 07:02 → SFO 08:30UA 488 2h 02m San Francisco SFO 10:32 → RNO 11:38UA 1845 4h 36m 94% 62%
FrontierDetails → BUR 13:10 → LAS 14:28F9 4108 2h 13m Las Vegas LAS 16:41 → RNO 18:15F9 4241 5h 05m 97% 60%
UnitedDetails → BUR 18:42 → SFO 20:10UA 1508 2h 35m San Francisco SFO 22:45 → RNO 23:58UA 1757 5h 16m 89% 60%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → BUR 13:45 → SFO 15:13UA 1453 1h 15m San Francisco SFO 16:28 → RNO 17:40UA 2690 3h 55m 68% 45%
UnitedDetails → BUR 20:22 → SFO 21:50UA 2854 55m San Francisco SFO 22:45 → RNO 23:58UA 1757 3h 36m 53% 36%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON