Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 4945 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 18% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–42%.

Safest bet that day WN 4945 BUR 07:05 → SFO 08:32 · 18% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 2854 BUR 20:22 → SFO 21:50 · 42% chance 15+ min late · usually 53% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4945 Southwest	BUR 07:05	SFO 08:32	18%	6%	1.9%	no record
UA 488 United Flight history →	BUR 07:02	SFO 08:30	24%	9%	1.1%	80%
OO 5272 SkyWest	BUR 21:17	SFO 22:46	31%	12%	2.2%	no record
UA 520 United	BUR 09:35	SFO 11:22	34%	16%	1.1%	no record
UA 2386 United Flight history →	BUR 10:53	SFO 12:21	35%	14%	1.0%	52%
UA 1066 United	BUR 16:10	SFO 17:37	37%	18%	1.0%	no record
WN 1501 Southwest	BUR 13:45	SFO 15:12	38%	16%	1.4%	no record
WN 1504 Southwest	BUR 20:55	SFO 22:22	39%	18%	1.6%	no record
UA 1453 United Flight history →	BUR 13:45	SFO 15:13	41%	16%	0.9%	66%
UA 1508 United Flight history →	BUR 18:42	SFO 20:10	41%	19%	1.0%	41%
UA 2854 United Flight history →	BUR 20:22	SFO 21:50	42%	16%	1.1%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON