Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 2582 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–24%.

Safest bet that day DL 2582 BUR 07:00 → SLC 10:01 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest DL 3693 BUR 16:54 → SLC 19:50 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2582 Delta Flight history →	BUR 07:00	SLC 10:01	7%	3%	0.8%	93%
DL 1290 Delta	BUR 09:52	SLC 12:44	12%	3%	0.8%	no record
DL 3933 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BUR 12:35	SLC 15:33	13%	5%	0.8%	85%
DL 3693 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BUR 16:54	SLC 19:50	24%	7%	1.7%	95%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON