Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 1020 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–30%.

Safest bet that day WN 1020 BUR 07:00 → SMF 08:30 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1147 BUR 17:50 → SMF 19:19 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1020 Southwest	BUR 07:00	SMF 08:30	4%	1%	1.4%	no record
WN 930 Southwest	BUR 09:21	SMF 10:50	7%	2%	1.3%	no record
WN 1021 Southwest	BUR 11:06	SMF 12:35	11%	3%	1.3%	no record
WN 1029 Southwest	BUR 13:47	SMF 15:16	22%	6%	1.3%	no record
WN 933 Southwest	BUR 15:52	SMF 17:21	26%	9%	1.4%	no record
WN 1132 Southwest	BUR 19:55	SMF 21:24	27%	10%	1.2%	no record
WN 860 Southwest	BUR 20:55	SMF 22:24	27%	10%	1.3%	no record
WN 1147 Southwest	BUR 17:50	SMF 19:19	30%	9%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON