tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Detroit, leaving 06:08, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Albuquerque on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 64% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 4519 Southwest BWI 09:30 ABQ 11:51 13% 2% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Albuquerque on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Albuquerque is 2 h behind Baltimore). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BWI 06:08 → DTW 07:39DL 2601 58m Detroit DTW 08:37 → ABQ 10:03DL 8817 5h 55m 93% 87%
UnitedDetails → BWI 06:00 → IAH 08:16UA 1898 1h 44m Houston IAH 10:00 → ABQ 11:25UA 3982 · flown by Mesa 7h 25m 99% 87%
AmericanDetails → BWI 06:15 → CLT 07:53AA 2670 3h 37m Charlotte CLT 11:30 → ABQ 13:11AA 3319 8h 56m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → BWI 05:40 → ATL 07:31DL 2950 1h 24m Atlanta ATL 08:55 → ABQ 10:03DL 1004 6h 23m 95% 82%
DeltaDetails → BWI 10:29 → ATL 12:18DL 1592 2h 05m Atlanta ATL 14:23 → ABQ 15:31DL 1109 7h 02m 97% 78%
AmericanDetails → BWI 07:30 → DFW 09:55AA 1403 3h 05m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:00 → ABQ 13:53AA 3777 · flown by Envoy 8h 23m 97% 77%
UnitedDetails → BWI 08:30 → DEN 10:25UA 2412 3h 22m Denver DEN 13:47 → ABQ 15:19UA 1594 8h 49m 99% 71%
DeltaDetails → BWI 11:52 → ATL 13:41DL 801 1h 36m Atlanta ATL 15:17 → ABQ 16:36DL 8802 6h 44m 94% 70%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → BWI 08:30 → DEN 10:25UA 2412 47m Denver DEN 11:12 → ABQ 12:38UA 476 6h 08m 72% 57%
UnitedDetails → BWI 16:23 → DEN 18:18UA 2012 1h 02m Denver DEN 19:20 → ABQ 20:44UA 484 6h 21m 64% 34%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON