Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 948 at 08:07 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16–33%.

Safest bet that day WN 948 BWI 08:07 → AUS 10:48 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2365 BWI 19:45 → AUS 22:30 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 948 Southwest	BWI 08:07	AUS 10:48	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 2740 Southwest	BWI 11:20	AUS 14:02	16%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 1961 Southwest	BWI 14:40	AUS 17:24	26%	7%	0.7%	no record
WN 2365 Southwest	BWI 19:45	AUS 22:30	33%	10%	0.9%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	BWI 08:17 → ATL 10:10DL 2562	55m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → AUS 12:25DL 2011	5h 08m	85%	71%
Delta Details →	BWI 07:00 → ATL 08:52DL 2579	51m Atlanta	ATL 09:43 → AUS 11:03DL 2886	5h 03m	76%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON