Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 2405 at 18:20, with a 30% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 2405 Southwest	BWI 18:20	BHM 19:33	30%	6%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Birmingham on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Birmingham is 1 h behind Baltimore). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BWI 05:40 → ATL 07:31DL 2950	2h 29m Atlanta	ATL 10:00 → BHM 09:57DL 3164	5h 17m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	BWI 07:00 → ATL 08:52DL 2579	2h 23m Atlanta	ATL 11:15 → BHM 11:10DL 1017	5h 10m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	BWI 08:17 → ATL 10:10DL 2562	3h 21m Atlanta	ATL 13:31 → BHM 13:24DL 3012	6h 07m	99%	83%
American Details →	BWI 05:01 → CLT 06:25AA 1708	2h 52m Charlotte	CLT 09:17 → BHM 09:44AA 5043 · flown by PSA	5h 43m	98%	79%
Delta Details →	BWI 10:29 → ATL 12:18DL 1592	2h 56m Atlanta	ATL 15:14 → BHM 15:10DL 3163	5h 41m	99%	78%
Delta Details →	BWI 17:00 → ATL 19:08DL 2799	3h 57m Atlanta	ATL 23:05 → BHM 23:02DL 2034	7h 02m	98%	77%
Delta Details →	BWI 12:33 → DTW 14:07DL 1546	1h 44m Detroit	DTW 15:51 → BHM 16:55DL 4647 · flown by Endeavor	5h 22m	95%	77%
Delta Details →	BWI 06:08 → DTW 07:39DL 2601	51m Detroit	DTW 08:30 → BHM 09:33DL 3685 · flown by SkyWest	4h 25m	90%	75%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	BWI 17:00 → ATL 19:08DL 2799	52m Atlanta	ATL 20:00 → BHM 19:58DL 3202	3h 58m	69%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON