Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 4883 at 06:55 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–28%.

Safest bet that day WN 4883 BWI 06:55 → BNA 07:55 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 5008 BWI 22:00 → BNA 22:59 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4883 Southwest	BWI 06:55	BNA 07:55	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 4738 Southwest	BWI 09:35	BNA 10:35	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 997 Southwest	BWI 13:40	BNA 14:39	17%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 1726 Southwest	BWI 15:15	BNA 16:15	21%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 1674 Southwest	BWI 18:30	BNA 19:30	25%	8%	0.8%	no record
UA 3809 United	BWI 17:08	BNA 18:20	25%	8%	1.1%	no record
WN 4138 Southwest	BWI 20:55	BNA 21:55	26%	7%	0.9%	no record
WN 5008 Southwest	BWI 22:00	BNA 22:59	28%	6%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON