Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 12 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 5813 at 06:21 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–39%.

Safest bet that day DL 5813 BWI 06:21 → BOS 08:00 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest WN 2288 BWI 17:35 → BOS 19:06 · 39% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5813 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BWI 06:21	BOS 08:00	3%	2%	0.7%	97%
DL 5703 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BWI 10:40	BOS 12:12	4%	2%	0.7%	91%
WN 4970 Southwest	BWI 06:30	BOS 08:01	5%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 4382 Southwest	BWI 08:20	BOS 09:51	7%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 2731 Southwest	BWI 10:40	BOS 12:19	8%	2%	0.7%	no record
DL 5644 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BWI 18:22	BOS 20:07	14%	8%	1.2%	67%
WN 814 Southwest	BWI 12:10	BOS 13:41	17%	4%	0.7%	no record
WN 3099 Southwest	BWI 14:20	BOS 15:51	27%	6%	0.7%	no record
WN 597 Southwest	BWI 16:05	BOS 17:35	30%	8%	0.9%	no record
WN 3944 Southwest	BWI 21:25	BOS 22:56	33%	8%	0.9%	no record
WN 3018 Southwest	BWI 22:30	BOS 00:01	35%	8%	1.1%	no record
WN 2288 Southwest	BWI 17:35	BOS 19:06	39%	9%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON