Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: WN 1718 at 10:25 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 28%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 1718 Southwest	BWI 10:25	CVG 12:06	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 4549 Southwest	BWI 22:35	CVG 00:16	28%	7%	0.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hebron on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BWI 10:40 → BOS 12:12DL 5703 · flown by Republic	2h 00m Boston	BOS 14:12 → CVG 16:45DL 5789 · flown by Republic	6h 05m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	BWI 05:40 → ATL 07:31DL 2950	2h 29m Atlanta	ATL 10:00 → CVG 11:28DL 3160	5h 48m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	BWI 07:00 → ATL 08:52DL 2579	2h 07m Atlanta	ATL 10:59 → CVG 12:22DL 3149	5h 22m	98%	83%
American Details →	BWI 05:01 → CLT 06:25AA 1708	1h 54m Charlotte	CLT 08:19 → CVG 09:45AA 430	4h 44m	97%	83%
United Details →	BWI 08:16 → ORD 09:30UA 2749	3h 29m Chicago	ORD 12:59 → CVG 15:30UA 4388 · flown by GoJet	7h 14m	100%	81%
Delta Details →	BWI 08:17 → ATL 10:10DL 2562	3h 38m Atlanta	ATL 13:48 → CVG 15:11DL 3169	6h 54m	99%	80%
Delta Details →	BWI 11:35 → MSP 13:11DL 2357	2h 39m Minneapolis	MSP 15:50 → CVG 18:37DL 703	7h 02m	99%	79%
Delta Details →	BWI 09:39 → DTW 11:07DL 2341	2h 53m Detroit	DTW 14:00 → CVG 15:16DL 5446 · flown by Endeavor	5h 37m	95%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON