Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 379 at 07:41 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33–39%.

Safest bet that day WN 379 BWI 07:41 → DEN 09:31 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1406 BWI 17:19 → DEN 19:17 · 39% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 379 Southwest	BWI 07:41	DEN 09:31	10%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 2412 United Flight history →	BWI 08:30	DEN 10:25	12%	4%	0.7%	90%
WN 993 Southwest	BWI 09:26	DEN 11:17	12%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 1105 Southwest	BWI 13:29	DEN 15:24	26%	5%	0.8%	no record
WN 3409 Southwest	BWI 19:59	DEN 21:58	33%	8%	1.0%	no record
UA 2012 United Flight history →	BWI 16:23	DEN 18:18	37%	10%	0.8%	79%worse than usual
WN 1406 Southwest	BWI 17:19	DEN 19:17	39%	11%	0.9%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	BWI 06:08 → DTW 07:39DL 2601	1h 01m Detroit	DTW 08:40 → DEN 09:47DL 1113	5h 39m	93%	84%
Delta Details →	BWI 06:20 → MSP 07:54DL 2872	1h 01m Minneapolis	MSP 08:55 → DEN 10:03DL 2849	5h 43m	93%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON