tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: WN 1969 at 13:25 is the safest bet, 20% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 32%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 1969 Southwest BWI 13:25 GRR 15:15 20% 4% 0.8% no record
WN 2907 Southwest BWI 22:45 GRR 00:36 32% 7% 3.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Grand Rapids on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BWI 05:40 → ATL 07:31DL 2950 2h 19m Atlanta ATL 09:50 → GRR 11:44DL 2547 6h 04m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → BWI 11:35 → MSP 13:11DL 2357 2h 51m Minneapolis MSP 16:02 → GRR 18:26DL 1555 6h 51m 100% 81%
UnitedDetails → BWI 08:16 → ORD 09:30UA 2749 3h 10m Chicago ORD 12:40 → GRR 14:55UA 4598 · flown by GoJet 6h 39m 100% 77%
DeltaDetails → BWI 10:29 → ATL 12:18DL 1592 3h 01m Atlanta ATL 15:19 → GRR 17:14DL 2058 6h 45m 99% 77%
DeltaDetails → BWI 17:27 → DTW 19:09DL 2480 3h 46m Detroit DTW 22:55 → GRR 23:57DL 4880 · flown by Endeavor 6h 30m 97% 74%
AmericanDetails → BWI 06:15 → CLT 07:53AA 2670 3h 22m Charlotte CLT 11:15 → GRR 13:10AA 1384 6h 55m 98% 74%
DeltaDetails → BWI 14:08 → ATL 16:05DL 2711 3h 49m Atlanta ATL 19:54 → GRR 21:51DL 2210 7h 43m 97% 71%
DeltaDetails → BWI 17:00 → ATL 19:08DL 2799 2h 51m Atlanta ATL 21:59 → GRR 23:54DL 2865 6h 54m 95% 68%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → BWI 17:00 → ATL 19:08DL 2799 46m Atlanta ATL 19:54 → GRR 21:51DL 2210 4h 51m 64% 46%
UnitedDetails → BWI 17:32 → ORD 18:55UA 590 1h 14m Chicago ORD 20:09 → GRR 22:12UA 2472 4h 40m 61% 26%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON