tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: WN 543 at 08:10 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 22%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 543 Southwest BWI 08:10 GSP 09:50 5% 1% 0.6% no record
WN 4053 Southwest BWI 20:01 GSP 21:42 22% 7% 0.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Greenville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → BWI 06:15 → CLT 07:53AA 2670 3h 14m Charlotte CLT 11:07 → GSP 12:14AA 5802 · flown by Piedmont 5h 59m 98% 91%
DeltaDetails → BWI 05:40 → ATL 07:31DL 2950 2h 26m Atlanta ATL 09:57 → GSP 10:57DL 2158 5h 17m 98% 90%
DeltaDetails → BWI 07:00 → ATL 08:52DL 2579 3h 05m Atlanta ATL 11:57 → GSP 12:57DL 1725 5h 57m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → BWI 08:17 → ATL 10:10DL 2562 2h 57m Atlanta ATL 13:07 → GSP 14:01DL 1273 5h 44m 99% 87%
AmericanDetails → BWI 05:01 → CLT 06:25AA 1708 2h 40m Charlotte CLT 09:05 → GSP 10:12AA 5799 · flown by Piedmont 5h 11m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → BWI 10:29 → ATL 12:18DL 1592 2h 49m Atlanta ATL 15:07 → GSP 16:07DL 3095 5h 38m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → BWI 17:00 → ATL 19:08DL 2799 3h 46m Atlanta ATL 22:54 → GSP 23:54DL 2281 6h 54m 98% 77%
DeltaDetails → BWI 14:08 → ATL 16:05DL 2711 3h 27m Atlanta ATL 19:32 → GSP 20:39DL 1021 6h 31m 97% 76%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON