Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 3129 at 06:25 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–33%.

Safest bet that day WN 3129 BWI 06:25 → HOU 08:49 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1133 BWI 20:11 → HOU 22:42 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3129 Southwest	BWI 06:25	HOU 08:49	7%	2%	1.0%	no record
WN 1680 Southwest	BWI 08:05	HOU 10:29	13%	2%	0.9%	no record
WN 1040 Southwest	BWI 13:37	HOU 16:04	27%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 1011 Southwest	BWI 18:05	HOU 20:34	31%	10%	0.8%	no record
WN 1133 Southwest	BWI 20:11	HOU 22:42	33%	9%	0.9%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	BWI 05:40 → ATL 07:31DL 2950	1h 10m Atlanta	ATL 08:41 → HOU 09:45DL 1509	5h 05m	93%	81%
Delta Details →	BWI 08:17 → ATL 10:10DL 2562	55m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → HOU 12:10DL 1195	4h 53m	85%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON