Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 4688 at 06:16 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 29–45%.

Safest bet that day WN 4688 BWI 06:16 → LAX 08:38 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4971 BWI 20:20 → LAX 22:54 · 45% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4688 Southwest	BWI 06:16	LAX 08:38	11%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 1591 United	BWI 07:51	LAX 10:18	16%	5%	0.7%	no record
UA 1546 United Flight history →	BWI 19:23	LAX 21:52	29%	10%	0.9%	66%
WN 1048 Southwest	BWI 15:20	LAX 17:52	33%	7%	0.7%	no record
WN 4971 Southwest	BWI 20:20	LAX 22:54	45%	11%	0.8%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	BWI 06:20 → MSP 07:54DL 2872	1h 26m Minneapolis	MSP 09:20 → LAX 11:10DL 2102	7h 50m	96%	80%
Delta Details →	BWI 09:39 → DTW 11:07DL 2341	1h 43m Detroit	DTW 12:50 → LAX 14:35DL 634	7h 56m	95%	77%
Delta Details →	BWI 06:08 → DTW 07:39DL 2601	56m Detroit	DTW 08:35 → LAX 10:20DL 523	7h 12m	92%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON