Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Boston, leaving 06:21, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching New York on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 61% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BWI 06:21 → BOS 08:00DL 5813 · flown by Republic	1h 00m Boston	BOS 09:00 → LGA 10:22DL 5732 · flown by Republic	4h 01m	97%	85%
Delta Details →	BWI 05:40 → ATL 07:31DL 2950	2h 59m Atlanta	ATL 10:30 → LGA 12:42DL 371	7h 02m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	BWI 06:08 → DTW 07:39DL 2601	2h 21m Detroit	DTW 10:00 → LGA 11:45DL 2589	5h 37m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	BWI 06:20 → MSP 07:54DL 2872	2h 11m Minneapolis	MSP 10:05 → LGA 13:45DL 2764	7h 25m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	BWI 07:00 → ATL 08:52DL 2579	2h 38m Atlanta	ATL 11:30 → LGA 13:42DL 467	6h 42m	99%	80%
Delta Details →	BWI 08:17 → ATL 10:10DL 2562	2h 20m Atlanta	ATL 12:30 → LGA 14:50DL 525	6h 33m	98%	80%
Delta Details →	BWI 10:40 → BOS 12:12DL 5703 · flown by Republic	1h 40m Boston	BOS 13:52 → LGA 15:17DL 5730 · flown by Republic	4h 37m	98%	78%
Delta Details →	BWI 10:29 → ATL 12:18DL 1592	2h 12m Atlanta	ATL 14:30 → LGA 16:50DL 524	6h 21m	98%	76%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	BWI 17:00 → ATL 19:08DL 2799	52m Atlanta	ATL 20:00 → LGA 22:27DL 490	5h 27m	69%	49%
JetBlue Details →	BWI 16:00 → FLL 18:41B6 2595	1h 19m Fort Lauderdale	FLL 20:00 → LGA 22:59B6 572	6h 59m	65%	33%
United Details →	BWI 17:32 → ORD 18:55UA 590	1h 14m Chicago	ORD 20:09 → LGA 23:28UA 2827	5h 56m	61%	28%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON