Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 1067 at 06:22 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 32–38%.

Safest bet that day WN 1067 BWI 06:22 → MDW 07:34 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 724 BWI 19:20 → MDW 20:33 · 38% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1067 Southwest	BWI 06:22	MDW 07:34	4%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 1071 Southwest	BWI 09:34	MDW 10:47	9%	2%	0.9%	no record
WN 716 Southwest	BWI 15:20	MDW 16:33	26%	6%	5.2%	no record
WN 1073 Southwest	BWI 22:31	MDW 23:46	32%	8%	2.2%	no record
WN 724 Southwest	BWI 19:20	MDW 20:33	38%	8%	5.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON