Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 3054 at 15:20, with a 16% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 3054 Southwest	BWI 15:20	MEM 16:49	16%	5%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Memphis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Memphis is 1 h behind Baltimore). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BWI 06:08 → DTW 07:39DL 2601	1h 08m Detroit	DTW 08:47 → MEM 09:49DL 1627	4h 41m	94%	84%
Delta Details →	BWI 06:20 → MSP 07:54DL 2872	1h 16m Minneapolis	MSP 09:10 → MEM 11:28DL 3989 · flown by SkyWest	6h 08m	95%	84%
Delta Details →	BWI 07:00 → ATL 08:52DL 2579	3h 23m Atlanta	ATL 12:15 → MEM 12:32DL 2778	6h 32m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	BWI 11:35 → MSP 13:11DL 2357	2h 34m Minneapolis	MSP 15:45 → MEM 17:52DL 4063 · flown by SkyWest	7h 17m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	BWI 05:40 → ATL 07:31DL 2950	1h 39m Atlanta	ATL 09:10 → MEM 09:27DL 2071	4h 47m	96%	82%
American Details →	BWI 05:01 → CLT 06:25AA 1708	2h 49m Charlotte	CLT 09:14 → MEM 10:08AA 1790	6h 07m	97%	82%
Delta Details →	BWI 08:17 → ATL 10:10DL 2562	3h 38m Atlanta	ATL 13:48 → MEM 14:14DL 733	6h 57m	99%	81%
American Details →	BWI 07:30 → DFW 09:55AA 1403	2h 40m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:35 → MEM 14:16AA 3888 · flown by Envoy	7h 46m	97%	78%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	BWI 17:00 → ATL 19:08DL 2799	1h 00m Atlanta	ATL 20:08 → MEM 20:32DL 3020	4h 32m	73%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON