Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 254 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–26%.

Safest bet that day WN 254 BWI 06:30 → MHT 08:07 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2557 BWI 22:30 → MHT 00:06 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 254 Southwest	BWI 06:30	MHT 08:07	2%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 4145 Southwest	BWI 11:08	MHT 12:34	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 3432 Southwest	BWI 13:30	MHT 15:06	12%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 1080 Southwest	BWI 17:07	MHT 18:35	22%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 2557 Southwest	BWI 22:30	MHT 00:06	26%	5%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON